So the population projection is going and as we work along with it you get to look at some data you did not look at in a while. Lots of recent discussion for us focuses on fertility and fertility modeling. Specifically we are trying to determine various determining factors related to births for North Dakota. This is important given the recent booms in certain sectors and in certain regions of the state.Continue reading Births to Married and Unmarried Women in ND
My paper examining the fertility impacts of the oil boom in North Dakota was accepted at the Population Association of America’s 2019 meeting! I am psyched beyond belief. The paper looks at oil price and quantity effects and determines their distinct impact on fertility in North Dakota prior to and during the boom. Maybe the most exciting aspect is the session for the paper.Continue reading Accepted to #PAA2019 !
As part of the undergraduate population analysis class we obviously took a look at fertility calculations. I brought in some data for the class to look at after consulting a bit about which states to choose. A big theme had been social norms and behaviors and how they can, can mind you, show up in data about fertility.Continue reading Total Fertility Rate in Select States (from class)
So an ongoing project that is taking a significant amount of my time (and thus taking time away from blogging) is executing a full population projection for North Dakota for the next 50 years. There seem to be some special issues when looking at the state level, for a small population state.Continue reading Population Projection for ND
As part of my construction of a population projection for North Dakota my reading and data analysis focused significantly on demographic data and trends in North Dakota. One of my concerns with trends in North Dakota is that with a low population base even moderate flows will lead to rate changes and possible adjustments in trends. The other issue for North Dakota is that the proximity to a larger neighbor in Minnesota can somewhat complicate the analysis. For example, this graph.Continue reading Migration in and out of North Dakota