I made my class predict the next monthly unemployment observation. The result is in.
I am teaching forecasting this semester and trying to show the students that forecasting is also a thought process and a state mind. So I thought some predictions about sectors impacted by the State of the Union speech would be a good exercise. I pick three sectors likely to be impacted: agriculture, energy, and construction. Why these three?Continue reading Predicting the State of the Union Impacts
I was watching Futurama this evening and the tag line for the show came on and said “You can’t prove it won’t happen.” What a great slogan for the forecasting class. It is an awesome example of prediction that cannot be verified or validated until too long into the future.Continue reading Forecasting Class Mantra?
The economic definition of labor force is a bit different from the conventional view. The labor force is employed plus unemployed, who by definition are those without a job but looking for work. I bring this up to avoid any confusion with the variable actually being forecast.
I testified in front of the state legislature forecast committee at the end of July and gave my feedback on proper process improvement North Dakota could, and should, make. Each of the items I mentioned could be an entire discussion on its own which makes testimony under a time limit a bit of an issue. And then I realized, I have a blog, so I can extend my thoughts as needed. The first point to discuss further is forecast horizon.