For the first post of the year I thought I would just give a quick post about some good and bad things I see in the future for Grand Forks, North Dakota, and the US.
A quick forecast of the North Dakota initial claims data. There is a bit of work to do for the next revision, but the claims data show a consistency that contributes to the discussion of overall ND labor market.
I give an updated look at the forecast for sales tax collections in Grand Forks. There are statistical issues with the forecast but corrections are in the works.
The way my travels fell meant I got back to back posts for sales tax because of the release schedule. So the question is: what have we learned? Well if somebody can explain to me the way the city is breaking out the report and why that makes sense, I would appreciate it.
The big month is finally here! We now have a month with sales tax numbers reflecting the increased sales tax rate for the Grand Forks. We are all so happy that we could… Alright, enough of that. The results are somewhat to be expected. From the May 2018 total June was down over $200,000. Costs go up with the sales tax increase and people and businesses adjust if they are able. The more problematic part really is that June 2018 is down almost 1% fro June 2017, more than $120,000. These are not outcomes we particularly like even though they are somewhat predictable.