Economics

Last week I argued (here) that the city’s use of the rolling twelve month total was not really about accuracy as much as stability. Essentially the two concepts are conflated in the presentation. I still fail to see the virtues of knowing the total sales over the last twelve months, and how it better informs policy decisions. I present the following graphs to demonstrate my points about stability. Here is the monthly collection amount (recall there is approximately a two month lag between sales tax collections and the reported amount).

Continue reading Grand Forks Sales Tax: Accuracy v. Stability

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I used the same data that I used for the map yesterday but plotted the ratio against median total earnings. Partly this was to see if there is a pattern to discern in North Dakota counties such as higher median earnings leading to an increasing or decreasing parity ratio. To assist in this examination, I added a linear regression line and a confidence interval and this is what I found. 

Continue reading Male-Female Earnings Ratio in ND, A follow up

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The March 2018 release came out and did not provide a ton of good news. The new data represents events of January 2018 and therefore pushes us through the entire holiday season. The March 2018 data was down 4.79% from the March 2017. The first quarter of 2018 declined 6.02% from the first quarter of 2017. The city likes to report a rolling 12 month total. For those that do not know, this means they look at the total for the last twelve months and as a new month is added they drop the oldest month. The city suggests this is more accurate, though I am not clear what the term accuracy implies here. The rolling 12-month total generally crosses multiple fiscal years so it is not really reflective of a specific budget year which would be something like calendar year accumulations. The other issue is this measure is down 19 of the last 20 months.

Continue reading Grand Forks Sales Tax, March 2018

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The simple fact is that pensions are still in the news all the time. You might think they settled down after the Detroit pension debacle but do a quick Google News search on pensions and you will see that teacher pensions in multiple states are in the news, Park District employees in Chicago won a court case regarding pensions, and I tweeted a few days ago an article pointing out the problems with a multi-company pension that seemed to be teetering on the brink. This is not a rant against workers pensions though. Pensions are an important part of the negotiated compensation package between workers and employers. 

Continue reading The Pension Problem, yet again

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