We are getting a new forecast this week for tax revenues in North Dakota. Or so we are told. I’ve written about the problems with these forecasts in the past, but there is a further issue here needing discussion. The simple fact of the matter is a lack of good practice in the overall approach, particularly with how forecast results are disseminated.

Continue reading Tax Revenue Forecast Revisions in ND

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I was a guest on the Jay Thomas Show on WDAY radio out of Fargo today. The guest host was Rob Port from the SayAnythingBlog, Forum Communications Op-Ed pages, TV appearances, and probably a bunch of stuff I am forgetting. He might be getting close to the title of “King of All North Dakota Media” at this point. The topic was forecasting. Yes I know. Friday afternoon in the summer and we were talking forecasting. I do not apologize for it, since I am pretty much always thinking about statistical models.

Continue reading Good forecasting is not about getting it right the first time

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Several former students asked questions about forecasting performance and I assume it has to do with my recent post about the performance of the forecast of North Dakota sales tax. As they well know and a quick investigation would make clear, there is no shortage of discussion of these issues. The student know this, it is one of the things I tell them is constantly updated in the field.

Continue reading Want Technical Forecast Info? Read Dave Giles’ Blog

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