So after the post yesterday and some of the discussion today I realized I could smooth out the picture a bit more. I kind of kicked myself for breaking one of the main bits of guidance I give to my forecasting students. So I take a look at the quarterly data from last time, but this time we look at the percentage change from a year ago levels, thereby controlling for seasonal factors.
Continue reading Another Look at ND Wage data
For a first comparison of Grand Forks I look at county wages for five counties in North Dakota while we try to figure out what type of city Grand Forks really is.
I decided to further look at yield spreads and put a bit of a local spin on it by adding in the element of North Dakota oil production. I am trying to figure out if rates and rate movements impact the oil industry in North Dakota. The interesting thing here is that the cost structure of the firms is really different.
Continue reading Yield Spreads and North Dakota Oil
My paper examining the fertility impacts of the oil boom in North Dakota was accepted at the Population Association of America’s 2019 meeting! I am psyched beyond belief. The paper looks at oil price and quantity effects and determines their distinct impact on fertility in North Dakota prior to and during the boom. Maybe the most exciting aspect is the session for the paper.
Continue reading Accepted to #PAA2019 !
As part of the undergraduate population analysis class we obviously took a look at fertility calculations. I brought in some data for the class to look at after consulting a bit about which states to choose. A big theme had been social norms and behaviors and how they can, can mind you, show up in data about fertility.
Continue reading Total Fertility Rate in Select States (from class)