So J.T. and I discussed my post on tobacco bonds while I was on the radio today. One of the things that amazed him, and me too, was the notion the rate of smoking fell more than assumed. So, doing what I do, I went online and got some data, this time from the OECD.
The data is complete from 1997 on, so the rate is declining over the entire time period, and almost at a straight line rate. The article from the other post mentions the rate is lower than that cooked into the deals, many of which occurred in the latter part of this data. So what am I missing? How do you miss this pattern? Did you look at the wrong set of data? Did you even look at this data? This is why I suggest governments need to find someone to vet these deals on their behalf. They are clearly unable to do the job and need to admit it.