Let’s get this out of the way at the start: the information contained here is not a predictive model of the outcome of the election and it is nothing official from UND. It is me on my own time putting this together because of some of the questions from JT on the radio show. As far as the predictive aspects, there are too many moving parts and too little data to adequately model the outcome at this point. We can develop numerous rules and test them as outcomes, but at the end it will still be a subjective probability model.
So what does this do? I give you three scenarios to use to estimate the possible outcome of the vote on the nickname. You need to fill in your assumptions (which makes it your subjective bias driving the results) about the likelihood of certain vote outcomes and whether people even vote. The cells you need to adjust are in yellow and the results will be at the bottom of each scenario.
By far the most flexible scenario is the one I list as scenario three. There you have the option to adjust whether or not those that already voted continue to vote, how they choose to vote, and whether new people vote and how they vote. Again, all this does is show you the percentage allocated to the three remaining choices once you put your assumptions into place. So take a look at the consequences for your vision of the world, at least as far as the nickname vote goes.
Update: I forgot to mention, if you want to download the sheet and muck about with it you can, by clicking the icon at the bottom of the embedded Excel sheet that looks like a page with an arrow pointing down.