So there will be a vote December 11 on the Brexit deal and the current position is amazingly uncertain. I must say this is a terribly interesting watch. Most people who know me understand I am not interested in this from the perspective of the various implications (right now). My biggest interest is in the negotiating tactics, or lack thereof.
This recent New York Times piece (from Reuters) was a nice summary of the situation. There are so many interesting dimensions to this, not least of which is the blatant placement of personal power and gain above national interest. The internal strife in the Conservative party right now is really a surprise, at least to me. The number of people willing to take a “hard” Brexit with its uncertainty and other issues is also a surprise, especially because they seem to reveal currently that they would not agree to any deal.
There are political factions in the US that, at times, seem willing to make the good the enemy of the perfect while simultaneously suggesting they could agree to deals that are just not being offered at the time, and may never be attainable. It seems a significant enough number of pols in England were of the same opinion though maybe not revealing that information even to their Prime Minister. It seems to be the case that many of the more conservative political groups in the last decade experienced heightened difficulty in maintaining party unity around key issues.
There are always going to be disagreements over policy, even within parties, so that is not a major surprise. The more pressing concern for May has to be the consequences of a vote against the current plan. There are all types of problems and concerns that will come storming to the front if the deal does not pass and these can have important ramifications across international borders. Trade with the EU and the US can be in jeopardy. Let’s be honest, does any country feel “safe” in their trading relationship with the US right now?
This is definitely the event I will be watching to see how it unfolds while thinking about the consequences for global economic growth in 2019.