So the BEA release (follow this link to the data) this week revealed a large decline in North Dakota GDP from 2014 to 2015. Not a real surprise. As a minor note, I prefer to use the quarterly data instead of the annual data, not because it tells a very different story, but there are some distinctions. That is what I will be using in this discussion. I am also looking at the real GDP data to control for inflation changes over this time.
The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book today, which is a summary of their comments on economic conditions. The report contains information related to each district, and there is some information specific to North Dakota mentioned in the Book. I am just highlighting a few of the more notable elements here. The link to the full report is above.
Many times people asked me about the relative importance of the agriculture sector and the mining sector so I thought I would show some current data. Now the coal industry output remains almost the same over this time frame, so the oil sector is responsible for the growth. The data run from 2005Q1 to 2015Q3 and the lines display each sector as a share of total GDP (private and public sector).
Well the grading for Spring is done and Summer term started. So I will (hopefully) have more time to post. And what better place to start than with housing! Why? Mostly because I do not like to talk about it, but it seems that everyone wants to call into the Jarrod Thomas Show and talk about it. So let’s think about this issue again.
The radio discussion today focused on the importance of forecasts and the forecast process in decision-making, particularly budgeting. Most of this related to various aspects of the forecasting and budgeting process at the state level in North Dakota and how it impacts other entities like UND. There was also some appropriate trashing of the forecasters that gave such erroneous predictions and then decide the state is in recession. I discussed some data which I want to make available here. There is more that will be put online as I get it created.