Before the data is released I felt it important to get my take on GDP revisions out there. There will be the standard outcries about political manipulation of the numbers and this is really not the intent, nor the outcome, of this process. This article from Bloomberg.com explains the process a bit. This article does a little better (especially on the R&D front and it mentions economic history). The U.S. economy is dynamic and constantly changing. We can call it innovation or entrepreneurship or development, but at its root it is change. Change in the products and services made and changes in the processes used to make them. These changes require us to change how we account for different aspects of the economy over time.

Continue reading Recalculating GDP

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The Weather Channel had a report on this week about circumstances on the eastern seaboard after SuperStorm Sandy. My students in Forecasting and Demography classes hear this information from me all the time. Look at any natural disaster, widespread blackout or other major event, and then take a look starting eight months later and you will notice an uptick in births. In fact, you can see this ahead of time if you pay attention to the OB-GYN visits. People are creatures of habit, and it sounds corny, but in times of crisis they look for comfort.

Continue reading After the Crisis, the Baby Boom

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In the last month, I have fielded many questions regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy and financial markets. Not a surprise since so much happened in that sphere. The Fed announced a change in policy. No wait, they didn’t. In fact,all they said at some point in the future we may see the U.S. economy strong enough that massive monetary stimulus may no longer be necessary. We should really file this under a non-story type of title, akin to saying at some point the sun will rise, but I am not sure when.

Continue reading Monetary policy and the markets

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For anybody paying even a modicum of attention pension math has been a source of significant debate in the last decade. There are many aspects of pension math worthy of discussion and this recent New York Times article points out many of these issues in light of the Detroit bankruptcy filing and the public sector employee pensions. To put it bluntly, most pensions assume their result.

Continue reading Pension math represents a ticking bomb

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