The state releases data around 11am daily so expect that I can get to this in the afternoon when teaching and meetings allow. So the daily numbers released today were high and I updated the graphs. Here is the graph with the susceptible encounters:
The 14-day centered moving average is now at 9.3% and is likely to be climbing for a while given the size of today’s daily number. The rising at an increased rate is also concerning right now. The graph for the total cases positivity rate looks similar:
Again we see the moving average rising at an increased rate with a really high value for today. As I said before the rate for tests to first time testers is not my favorite at all, but I include it for completeness sake. You can see it tells a similar story.
The movement in the wrong direction for positivity rates is not encouraging. At these levels contact tracing is mostly useless. It is also the case that you start to worry about business impacts in a significant fashion, regardless of policies adopted.