ND COVID MA, 23 October 2020

With the data released today, for all intents and purposes we are over the 10% threshold on the MA of positive tests over susceptible test encounters. The rate stands at 9.96689%. Recall I use a centered moving average so this is looking both forward and back and therefore it is going to be increasing for some time given the recent data.

This level is indicative of a widespread community-spread situation with the virus which is not good. There also appears to be momentum gathering here. As the level increases we are seeing the rate of increase go up as well (the line is getting steeper) and this is more concerning than the level in many ways.

Policy interventions are still important but are going to be that much more difficult to generate the type and quality of the outcome desired. From a business standpoint these levels feed consumer adjustments to shopping/buying behaviors as the risk decisions change for households and that is a major issue. Add to that the risk of supply chain issues as intermediate goods suppliers encounter their own staffing issues and businesses will be left with few options potentially.

As always, if you have suggestions for different images or if you want a copy of an image let me know.

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