ND COVID Moving Average, Updated 01 November 2020

Took yesterday as an off day to do Halloween things. We set records for positives on Friday and Saturday which is obviously discouraging. The data release today showed a daily positivity rate above 12% and the moving average is above 12% for the state now.

Just from the perspective of the math, this is a really important week for the numbers. The single digit percentages are starting to roll off the MA calculation. With the rates of positivity where they are now the best bet to get to low percentages is to drive up test numbers significantly.

The total test positivity rate displays the continued increase as well. Seven of the last 10 days were above double digits for this rate as well and again the math seems to indicate we will be increasing for some time.

The graph shows the positives are up while the testing is up too. From my read of the literature this seems to be the most likely strategy to start getting the positivity rate under control, but it will still take time.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.